Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Still from Retirement Plan
Oscars Best Animated Short Film Commentary (Updated Feb. 12, 2026): It’s a tale as old as time: you will win or lose your Oscar pools based on the shorts. And this year’s animated short race is a huge question mark on which film can walk away with the esteemed prize.
The nominees — Florence Miailhe’s “Papillon (Butterfly),” Nathan Engelhardt and Jeremy Spears’ “Forevergreen,” Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski’s “La jeune fille qui pleurait des perles (The Girl Who Cried Pearls),” John Kelly’s “Retirement Plan” and Timur Kognov’s “The Three Sisters” — each bring distinct visual language and tone to the field.
Deemed one of the early frontrunners is “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” which is backed by Canada’s National Film Board, and arrives with a significant pedigree from the Oscar-nominated team behind “Madame Tutli-Putli.” At the same time, “Retirement Plan” has built momentum with major festival wins, including top honors at last year’s SXSW.
Last year’s shocking winner, “In the Shadow of the Cypress,” is a reminder that this category can respond favorably to craft-forward storytelling.
So, your guess is as good as mine.
Final Oscar voting will take place from Feb. 26 to Mar. 5. The 98th Oscars will be held March 15 and will air on ABC, hosted by Conan O’Brien.
Image Credit: Sacrebleu Productions
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