Last Updated: Jan. 13, 2026 at 9:44 a.m. ET
First Published: Jan. 13, 2026 at 8:10 a.m. ET
Sizzling projected earnings growth won’t protect stock investors from a bear market. This runs counter to the narrative many shareholders are using to argue that the stock market must not be in a bubble. They insist that, because the S&P 500’s SPX earnings per share are projected to grow at a well-above-average pace in 2026, a bear market is most unlikely.
The current consensus expectation (according to Wall Street firm CFRA) is that the S&P 500’s EPS in 2026 will be 14.1% higher than 2025’s, double its 50-year annualized growth rate of 7.1%. If the EPS does grow that much, and even assuming that the index’s P/E ratio stays constant, the S&P 500 by the end of 2026 will trade at just over 7,800.
