Last Updated: Jan. 26, 2026 at 1:22 p.m. ET
First Published: Jan. 26, 2026 at 4:22 a.m. ET
Expectations for a U.S. government shutdown spiked over the weekend, with betters putting as much as an 82% chance on it happening by Jan. 31, according to activity on the prediction site Polymarket.
Headed into the weekend, chances of another shutdown hovered at around 9%, and those odds had been on the decline since mid-January. By Sunday, however, bets on that happening surged to over 70%, moving up to 80% and beyond as the hours passed. At last check the implied likelihood of a shutdown stood at 78%.
