We have examined the NBA’s MVP race in great detail over the last few weeks, but now it is high time for another look at this year’s candidates.
The list is not so dissimilar to our top candidates since the regular season’s one-third mark, when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokić, Jalen Brunson, Luka Dončić and Victor Wembanyama — in that order — were our leading candidates. It is just a bit jumbled now, and with Cade Cunningham in Brunson’s stead as the Eastern Conference’s sole representative on this ballot. His Detroit Pistons, who hold a four-game lead for the No. 1 seed, earned him that right.
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It is weird now how the MVP ballot reflects a position-less All-NBA First Team. Will any of the 100 voters’ top-five MVP candidates look different from their All-NBA First Team? I suppose it is possible. It would not be here, if I had a vote, because of course the five most valuable players should make up your position-less All-NBA First Team.
That is, of course, if they qualify for the NBA’s 65-game rule, which requires players to participate in that many games in order to be considered for end-of-season awards.
(Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
Kawhi Leonard can miss only one more game before he is disqualified. He may not appear on anyone’s MVP ballot, since his Los Angeles Clippers are below .500, but his production should absolutely be in play for a spot on the All-NBA Second Team.
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Cunningham’s MVP case is the one that is in most danger. He has missed nine games, and he is expected to miss at least the next six with a collapsed lung. To rush him back from that injury, just to qualify for end-of-year awards, might be a mistake.
Cunningham’s absence could leave the door open for Boston Celtics forward Jaylen Brown to make his way onto a ballot. Before we reveal too much, our MVP rankings …
Honorable mentions: Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics; Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks; Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves; Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers.
5. Luka Dončić, Los Angeles Lakers
Dončić has played his way into this conversation over the Lakers’ nine-game winning streak. Over that span, he has averaged a 40-8-7 on a 63.6 true shooting percentage.
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On the season, Dončić is now averaging a 33-8-8 on better than 60% true shooting. Nobody attempts more shots (22.7), 3-pointers (10.8) or free throws (10.3) a night. His usage rate (37.9%), obviously, leads the league. The Lakers score 119.1 points per 100 possessions, similar to the league’s second-best offense, when he is on the court.
Unfortunately, Los Angeles also allows 115.5 points per 100 possessions — a number that approaches the NBA’s bottom-10 defensive ratings — when he takes the floor. That figure is far better (110.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) over the past nine games, where Dončić has also improved on that end. If he can sustain that effort over the course of a full season, the 27-year-old may yet one day get his MVP.
4. Cade Cunningham, Detroit Pistons
Recency bias may suggest that Dončić belongs higher on this list, but remember: The Pistons perform like one of the league’s few title favorites, along with Gilgeous-Alexander’s Thunder and Wembanyama’s Spurs, when Cunningham is in the lineup.
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Detroit is 44-17 when the former No. 1 overall pick takes the court, a 59-win pace. Cunningham is not the team’s best defender, though he is one piece of an outfit that rates as the league’s second-best defense. He is also the sole creator for an offense that scores 119.7 points per 100 possessions (a top-two figure) when he’s on the floor.
Cunningham’s 24.5 points per game rank 13th in the NBA on decent efficiency (56.7 true shooting percentage). He could improve in that regard. But his 9.9 assists a night have generated more points (1,548) than anyone else, including Jokić, even as Detroit starts two defense-first non-shooters (Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson).
3. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
Jokić is enjoying a typical Jokić season, which is to say: The numbers are off the charts. He is averaging a triple-double, leading the league in both rebounds (12.6) and assists (10.6) per game. Needless to say, nobody has ever done that, especially not while averaging 28 points per game on league-leading efficiency (67.6 TS%).
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There is little doubt he is the game’s most impactful offensive player. The Nuggets own the NBA’s best offensive rating (120.2), and they are even better, scoring 125.1 points per 100 possessions, when Jokić is on the floor. That is just insane efficiency.
It is on the defensive end of the floor where Jokić’s MVP argument suffers. He is the anchor of the league’s 21st-rated defense, though it is a little bit better, allowing 114.7 points per 100 possessions (a middling figure), when he is actually on the court.
It does not help that his Nuggets have essentially played .500 ball since Christmas. Even as an injury-plagued roster has regained some of its health, Denver remains an inconsistent team, despite its superior offense, and that comes with porous defense.
2. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have climbed within three games of the Thunder for the West’s No. 1 seed, and that is Wembanyama’s key to moving into the top spot on these rankings. If San Antonio can catch Oklahoma City, there is a legitimate case to be made for Wemby.
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After all, he is the NBA’s most dominant defensive force. He is as impactful on that end as anyone is on offense. The Spurs allow 103.7 points per 100 possessions, more than two points better than OKC’s league-leading defense, when Wembanyama is on the court. San Antonio is a middling defensive outfit when Wemby is on the bench.
Offensively, the Spurs score 119.9 points per 100 possessions, something like the league’s second-best unit, whenever Wembanyama is on the floor. He is the NBA’s 13th-most impactful player offensively, according to Dunks and Threes’ Estimated Plus-Minus, trailing only Jokić, Gilgeous-Alexander, Dončić and 10 other dynamos.
There is a real case to be made that a 22-year-old 7-foot-5 (7-foot-7?) phenom is already the NBA’s best player, depending on how much you weigh defense against offense, though the standings do not reflect it. Yet. The Spurs are 43-13 when Wemby is in the lineup, a 63-win pace. You have to be better than that to catch the Thunder.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder
Someone has to take the MVP trophy from Gilgeous-Alexander, who edged Jokić for the regular-season award last season, and then added a Finals MVP honor to his collection en route to his first-ever championship.
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Nobody has taken it from him. Not yet.
The Thunder once again own the league’s best record — by three full games over Wembanyama’s Spurs. They operate better than the NBA’s best offense, scoring 120.4 points per 100 possessions, and better than its best defense, allowing 106 points per 100 possessions, when Gilgeous-Alexander is on the court for them.
When SGA is off the floor, Oklahoma City still performs like a 54-win team, owning the NBA’s top defense, allowing 105.2 points per 100 possessions, but its offense drops to one of the league’s worst outfits, scoring 110 points per 100 possessions.
That could be a strike against Gilgeous-Alexander in the right argument. But we should measure him against what the Thunder look like with him on the court, not how good they are when is not playing, and they look like a juggernaut with him.
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Besides, SGA is averaging 31.6 points per game on 66.5% true shooting. Only one other guard has ever scored 30-plus points a night on better shooting efficiency: Stephen Curry in his unanimous MVP campaign for the 73-win Warriors in 2016.
In other words, Gilgeous-Alexander is enjoying one of the best offensive seasons ever for a guard, while serving as a cog on the league’s best defense, for the NBA’s best team. Until someone can match those credentials, the award is SGA’s to lose.
