The draft will be in Pittsburgh in less than a month and the Colts have seven picks to try and address six varying degrees of need. Andrew Aziz gave us these six needs last week and I not only agree with the positions, but the order of importance as well. A quick recap of the article lists or needs as: EDGE Rusher, Off Ball LB, WR, Safety, OL depth and RB depth, in that order. I think most of us are hoping to check that EDGE Rusher box off of the list before the draft, because without an option to pair with Latu, we are not likely to take a step forward.
So, how to you get five guys to contribute among the seven guys you draft? There are a ton of variables and opinions on how to approach the draft, but the simple and best outcome is that they just have to be right. Just like Ballard is being judged on his record, the draft will be judged on whether the players contribute to a winning team or not. Our GM has produced a mixed bag of hits and misses and he will not survive if there are not four or five “hits” this year.
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He is going to need a couple of those hits to be home runs. Warren was one of those last season. It was a great result when need intersected BPA. Conversely, you can’t have guys that after one full season the jury is still out. JTT, Walley, and Wohler remain unknowns for different reasons, mostly injury. You had a couple of players who had to be considered successes of the single and double variety in Leonard and Travis. If we get the same “depth” at OL and RB this year, that we got at OL and QB last year, we could call it a win. We can’t have a Giddens result as RB depth this year and even though we have picks 249 and 254, they can’t be the nuthing burger pick that Tim Smith appears to be.
Going back a year, you had another mixed bag. Latu still labors in mixed review land as his production has not exactly lived up to his draft position. But, given that he’s not had a dynamic rusher on his other side, he still has the runway to be a hit. Mitchell is gone, so he is only a success if Sauce becomes All Pro. Goncalves and Bortolini have to be called hits (possibly homeruns for their draft position), but aside from a few Gould returns, everything after round four is a miss.
Getting an EDGE prior to the draft can make the home run process a little more realistic. It should be possible to find a starting LB and LB depth in the coming draft. It should be possible to find a 4th (after Pierce, Downs and Warren) receiving option that will be better than Dulin or Westbrook-Ikhine by the bye week. It should be possible to find a safety, although we have always had a bit of success finding a vet with something left in the tank. We should also be able to get that OL and RB depth that we will need to get through the season.
I am not now, nor ever have I been confident that I know enough about the college players to make accurate predictions. It never stops me from guessing and I even run a contest to match wits the rest of our viewership. The bad news is that given 10 picks to guess our draft class, one correct is the best I have been able to muster. By draft day, I will have myself convinced that I know more than I really do and I will not be able to understand how my guy was passed over. I have been somewhat accurate on picking the positions that will be drafted.
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So, here is a guess (please note the word guess) of how we use our picks, once we sign or trade for the DE/EDGE that we all know has to be acquired.
Round 2 (47) Has to be a starting 3 down LB. No names because as far as I know, Red Murdock is that guy.
Round 3 (78) Will be a Safety, or Safety/LB hybrid that is crucial on passing downs.
Round 4 (113) Will be a WR and could still be a very good one, given the way the college game has evolved and the depth in this draft.
Round 5 (156) Should be OL depth, most likely on the interior
Round 6 and 7 (214, should all be RBs who can play ST. Throw a lot of darts and hope one hits.
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I don’t think you will see the project pick, as we already have our basketball conversion guy. I do not think CB should hold it against a player for being a little older on draft day. Give me six good years from a player during his age 24 – 30 seasons. I would also guess that production will matter more than RAS for this draft. There wont be enough time to turn an athlete into a football player this coming year.
It would be great if this year was a better draft class than what is being projected. I think this is largely fueled by the fact that the QB position is so weak. It is considered to be strong at WR, LB and IDL, which bodes well for filling the roster needs.
The other aspect to consider is that no team ever says “We’re good”, nothing needed here. We are going to be a little (a lot for some) upset and predict doom, related to the lack of quality or depth at a position. It certainly wouldn’t hurt if a player that is already on the team had a breakout.
Do you believe that we can hit on enough players to make the roster complete? What was omitted, besides drafting a new GM?
