A column chronicling conversations and events on the awards circuit.
At a holiday party Saturday night celebrating the birthdays of Roadside Attractions co-President Erik d’Arbeloff who turned 60 and his son, Lucas (with Roadside’s co-President Howard Cohen) who turned 21, I had a number of conversations with various industry types and several Academy voters in the crowd at Smog Shoppe on La Cienega, and it is always interesting to see – especially on the cusp of the New Year- just how many have yet to see so many of the Oscar contenders at this late date in the game. Nomination balloting begins on January 12 at 9AM PT and ends January 16 at 5pm PT. Fortunately they have the two week holiday break (some key companies shut down for the entire time) so, if so inclined, Oscar voters who are usually last on the trail have a chance to catch up, after slews of critics orgs and even President Barack Obama, have weighed in on the field.
WB AWARDS
Yes there is a dedicated crowd of AMPAS voters who try to keep up and see what’s out there in a timely fashion, yet unless you are One Battle After Another, Sinners, Frankenstein, or Avatar: Fire And Ash , maybe a handful of other titles, an average audience of AMPAS members and their guests on a decent turnout might be around 200 in the 1000 seat Samuel Goldwyn Theatre where official Academy screenings are held. On a recent weekend about 90 turned out for the prime Sunday show of Gus Van Sant’s Dead Man’s Wire, a little more than half that for Lucy Liu’s terrific performance in the indie drama Rosemead the next Saturday, and that was with Q&As with many of the principals involved. Of course the Academy has a digital screening room now – like most voting groups- so it is harder to lure them out of their homes unless it is very high profile and a “must see” on a large movie theatre screen (the Academy’s is the best in town). Other screening opportunities that come with Q&As , Receptions and food at places like Ross House, Soho House, The London Hotel and other favored venues draw their fair share so it is not for lack of opportunity to see these films.
In a good movie AMPAS tweaked voting rules last season in order to assure that those casting ballots have actually seen the films nominated. Again, that is only after nominations for the final ballot in all categories. “You do not need to save movie stubs, tickets or receipts,” the academy wrote in its Oct. 30, 2024 email to its voting members. “This is an honor system.”
So how it works is members who watch on the Academy’s official steaming site will be automatically verified. For films that members watch somewhere else, they must indicate it by marking “watched” next to the film’s name on the service or app. Thus the Academy is able to notify members what films they still need to watch before voting. Of course who is to say some don’t just put a movie on the service and leave the room? I don’t believe that happened widely and this is a good step forward, but it is only after nominations, not deciding what gets nominated, a much wider swatch of films that can be daunting for the diligent member.
Increasingly though it feels like the Academy, and to be fair many other groups including critics, zero in on a handful of movies and vote down the ballot, even with requirements to see everything. The triumph of Anora seemed like that kind of case, an indie movie more widely seen than you might imagine in the Academy (and that might have been due to the new requirements for viewing every nominee) and getting checked off on the ballot in just about every category it was in, a distinct advantage for those movies that can break through at the last minute and not be on the list of what so many members tell me, ” oh yeah I have to see that one” or “I should see that, just haven’t had time yet”. So hopefully in the next two and a half weeks they will find the time to see more films pre nomination balloting, although I am getting the feeling this might be one of those years where the ultimate winners seem more predictable, at least in conversations I have been having.
ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, Leonardo DiCaprio, 2025. © Warner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
Warner Bros./Courtesy Everett Collection
“So is it already a done deal, we know what what’s winning?”, one veteran producer and Oscar voter asked me as I stood at the bar at the Roadside party. And yes, I immediately knew he was talking about One Battle After Another, the Warner Bros title that is not also a description of their current status as a studio for sale. I moderated the official AMPAS screening back in September to what is quite unusual, a turnaway crowd at the Goldwyn and a massive standing ovation for Paul Thomas Anderson in addition to enthusiastic receptions for its cast members, so its success and popularity in the industry is not surprising. Anderson is overdue and the movie is one that filmmakers love. I am sure the producer was also referring to the endless drumbeat of early wins on the critics awards circuit for the movie where it won at Gothams, National Board Of Review, LA and NY film critics, and racking up numerous other Best Picture prizes wherever it seems to go. Usually critics groups aren’t so aligned with industry sentiment but that appears to be the trajectory here. With a leading 9 noms at the Golden Globes, and 14 more at Critics Choice it is in as strong a position as you can possibly be at this point in the game. But being a front runner this early is treacherous, The aforementioned Anora didn’t establish itself as the one to beat until February when it won at the delayed Critics Choice ceremony and then back to back on the next night at DGA and PGA. Without question the most important voices are yet to be heard from, and won’t be until after the New Year with all the guilds, BAFTA, and then finally Academy. Many a front runner has been tripped up on the way to Oscar Sunday so always beware.
‘Sinners’
Warner Bros.
What could stop it in its tracks? Start with another Warner Bros title, Sinners, which is also not a name the WBD board uses to describe the Ellisons. If One Battle has 14 CCA nominations, Sinners leads everyone with 17 and it was named in every single category it was eligible for on the Oscar shortlists of 12 categories. Could that film change the momentum game and surprise, especially for a movie released in the unfriendly Oscar month of April? Will Warners find itself split with love for both Anderson and Sinner’s director Ryan Coogler? These are the questions I am asking. If there is a split there could it be to the benefit of Guillermo del Toro’s Netflix hit, Frankenstein? Wouldn’t that be a touch of irony considering all that is going on in town these days. Del Toro is enormously beloved and the movie is a marvel of the kind of craft Oscar has always loved, or at least used to love.
Agata Grzybowska/Focus Features
Then there is Focus Features’ Hamnet, a gut-wrenching wallop from Oscar winner Chloe Zhao (Nomadland). This isn’t just some indie movie. Its producers are Amblin’, Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, okay? They have a lot of power and persuasion in Hollywood, and this film does what overall you want every film to do, to leave you with a shot to the heart and an emotional ending like no other. That counts for a lot, and you could tell right from the first screening in Telluride that it landed. Focus has never won the Best Picture Oscar (neither has Netflix), and Universal is likely to be lending its heft to its campaign too, but remember they also have their own Wicked: For Good , hoping it finds its mojo in the Best Picture race this year or is relegated again ulitmately to just crafts recognition. It’s impressive showing on the Oscar shortlists with a co-leading 8 is promising. Yest it is always hard for Part 2’s to prevail, but don’t tell that to The Godfather Part II or Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King.
Timothée Chalamet in ‘Marty Supreme‘
A24
And what of A24’s Christmas juggernaut, Marty Supreme which already seems a shoe-in for marketing movie of the year thanks to its star Timothee Chalamet who also seems in line for the top marketing job at A24 in his spare time. Critically and perhaps boxoffice-wise (it came in a surprising second to Avatar: Fire And Ash on Christmas day) it is poised to be a spoiler since it also set records for limited release last weekend. Can the Chalamet express go all the way to the Dolby station?
Then there is the question of the ever-growing international vote in the Academy, the swing voters who really can make a difference and this year there are some prime contenders with Sentimental Value, It Was Just An Accident, Sirat, The Secret Agent all coming out of Cannes and gunning next for Oscar. This year can especially be telling in terms of the power of the international vote where purely America-centric movies like One Battle and Sinners may find a tougher audience – or not. Great filmmaking is great filmmaking no matter what part of the world it is showing us.
So thinking about it my response to that producer I told you about might be not so fast. Stay tuned.
OSCAR’S COMEBACK OF THE MONTH – DECEMBER
If One Battle After Another has been the presumed leader of the Oscar race since its September debut, Warner Bros took a distinctly different campaign strategy with their other juggernaut, Sinners which debuted way back in April, a release date where it is easy to be forgotten by the time the actual season rolls around and Fall releases, even Summer releases in some cases (we’re talking about YOU Oppenheimer and Barbie), take precedent in the race for Hollywood’s most prestigious honor. Basically Warners held back its relaunch until November when star Michael B. Jordan was available after wrapping shooting on The Thomas Crown Affair in Europe, and especially this month when it seemed Sinners was everywhere on the FYC circuit, with numerous stars hosting FYC events aimed at regaining the attention of Oscar voters, and other groups. It certainly seems to have worked as the film led the aforementioned Oscar shortlists with 8, as well as the aforementioned Critics Choice Awards with a near-record 17 (final voting is now open through Jan 2 at CCA and through Jan 3 for Golden Globes while SAG announced nominations Jan 7), both indicating the enthusiastic backing it has in crafts and below the line categories, something very important within the Academy as it indicates strong across the board support among the overall membership, not just the marquee acting, writing and directing categories. Sinners could very well lead all comers when Oscar nominations are announced on January 22.
Among those hosting Sinners events were Spike Jonze, Christopher Nolan, Lupita Nyong’o, Questlove, Viola Davis, Austin Butler, Kenneth Branagh, Destin Daniel Cretton, Idris Elba, Ben Stiller, Denzel Washington, and Barry Jenkins.
Denzel Washington (R) moderates ‘Sinners’ with co-star Delroy Lindo at Harmony Gold Theatre.
Warner Bros / Brian Gove
Viola Davis (above) moderated a SAG-AFTRA Foundation Q&A for Sinners with SAG voters on Sunday, December 14th at the Meryl Streep Center for the Performing Arts with actors Michael B. Jordan & Wunmi Mosaku plus casting director Francine Maisler.
Austin Butler (below) hosting an AMPAS tastemaker for Sinners at Soho House co-hosted by WME on Monday December 8th. Preceding the screening there was a Q&A moderated by director Chris Columbuswith director/writer/producer Ryan Coogler, actor Michael B. Jorda and casting director Francine Maisler. Producer Zinzi Coogler was also in attendance.
