CBS Sports’ NBA Draft Big Board and prospect rankings have stayed relatively consistent throughout the college basketball season heading into this weekend’s lottery, in large part because the freshmen class was as good or even better expected coming into the year.
AJ Dybantsa may have overtaken Darryn Peterson for the No. 1 overall spot, but the perceived big three has remained the same with Cameron Boozer rounding out the group and taking college basketball’s player of the year honors. Caleb Wilson, Darius Acuff, Mikel Brown, Nate Ament, Brayden Burries, and Koa Peat were all five-star prospects coming out of high school, and rated accordingly to start the college season. Kingston Flemings and, especially, Keaton Wagler were just added pleasant surprises.
While these will very likely be the names that franchises are choosing from at the top of the draft, it’s probable that the association’s 30 different front offices could be sorting them in very different orders, maybe even within their own front office.
2026 NBA Mock Draft: Adam Finkelstein’s projections for top picks as Sunday’s lottery to determine No. 1 looms
Adam Finkelstein
For all the leaked intel and speculation that comes out around the draft, the most reliable pieces of information come from history. Franchises, and more specifically, certain executives, have patterns of prioritizing certain things in the draft process. Thus, we can make some educated guesses about how Sunday’s lottery results could impact the projected order of our latest mock draft.
Is AJ Dybantsa definitely the No. 1 pick? Or could Darryn Peterson still come off the board first?
It has been speculated that all 30 teams would take Dybantsa No. 1 at this point. Candidly, I’m not sure how anyone could make that determination definitively. Dybantsa may be the strong favorite to go No. 1, but it is incumbent on whoever lands that pick to do their due diligence on multiple prospects, including medicals, interviews, workouts, the works… In my opinion, that group should include Peterson, Boozer, and even Wilson.
Peterson was the No. 1-ranked player coming out of high school basketball a year ago and also the prospect that most projected to be the first player selected in the 2026 NBA Draft until his freshman season at Kansas was largely defined by his availability issues. If Peterson had been 100% all year long at Kansas, would Dybantsa still be perceived as a virtual lock to go number one? Not at all, especially for those who watched the two superstars go head-to-head. In that BYU-Kansas battle, Peterson scored 18 first-half points. It was hardly unprecedented, after Peterson also outdueled Dybantsa in high school just a year earlier. The best version of Peterson is one that combines positional size, length, physicality, real playmaking chops, and tremendous shooting splits. That’s the type of lead guard we haven’t seen in several draft cycles.
NBA Draft Lottery 2026: Which teams could benefit most by landing the No. 1 pick?
Cameron Salerno
Who are some of the teams that could be most willing to take a chance on Peterson at this point? The Brooklyn Nets and Sacramento Kings are the two that come to mind right away. They were both among the five worst teams in the NBA last year and still lack that budding young star to both build around and sell to their fan base. If you’re starting from scratch, the typical methodology is to look for the highest upside prospect available. There is still a case to be made that Peterson is that prospect.
Who might take Boozer in the top two?
At the risk of being redundant, Cameron Boozer is the winningest player in modern high school basketball history. He was the college basketball player of the year and has the highest floor in this draft. That is to say that his worst-case scenario, short of something totally unpredictable happening, is better than anyone else’s. He may not have the same athletic upside as Dybantsa, Peterson or even Wilson, but they don’t have anywhere close to Boozer’s pedigree of impacting winning.
That’s the key, too: impacting winning. Most teams at the top of the lottery are facing longer rebuilds, but some are hoping to contend sooner rather than later. A few teams are hoping to contend next season, and one is doing it right now.
The Oklahoma City Thunder’s rumored interest in Boozer goes back many months. The potential of pairing him with Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams would solidify their frontline as one of the best in basketball for the better part of the next decade, all while they have an MVP leading their backcourt.
Now, OKC’s chances of moving up on draft night are improbable. They own the Clippers’ pick, which isn’t quite as valuable as it looked like it would be at the beginning of the season when they lost 21 of their first 27 games. The Thunder have a 1.5% chance of landing the No. 1 pick and a 7.1% chance of landing in the top four. If they were to somehow end up at No. 2, I would almost be surprised if Boozer wasn’t the pick.
Another franchise in win-now mode is the Indiana Pacers, but their chances of a top pick are vastly higher. Indiana has a 52% chance of landing a top-four pick. They won just 19 games this season in Tyrese Haliburton’s absence. But with one of the league’s best point guards set to return next season, Pascal Siakam locked in, and Ivica Zubac acquired at the deadline, last year’s Eastern Conference champions could bounce back in a hurry. This is also a scenario where Boozer would make sense, especially if Indiana lands at 2.
Can Caleb Wilson crack the big three?
Caleb Wilson exceeded all expectations in his 24 games at North Carolina before his season was cut short by a hand injury. After being considered somewhat limited offensively in high school, and yet still being a five-star prospect, he put up 19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 2.9 total stocks per game, all while shooting 58% from the floor. He’s an extreme athlete who covers the court effortlessly, bounces up violently, has unusual elasticity and bend for a player his size, and an elite motor to maximize those physical gifts.
What’s equally intriguing is that Wilson still has so much potential to keep improving. The big knock on Wilson right now is his shooting. He was just 25.9% from behind the three-point line and very reliant on the type of mid-range jumpers that are discouraged in the NBA. What happens if his three-point shooting improves across the next few NBA seasons? If he becomes someone who can make open threes, his upside catapults. He also has a ton of untapped potential defensively. That’s the one area of his game that wasn’t quite as good as expected this year. Wilson has the physical tools to be as versatile a defender as any player in the 2026 draft, but that rarely came all the way to fruition this season.
Who could snag Wilson earlier than expected?
Picking Wilson in the top three would require a team that has a history of independent thought and willingness to go against the grain. That’s a franchise like the Memphis Grizzlies. They not only check both of those boxes, but they also have a pristine draft history, as of late. Taking Zach Edey at No. 9 in 2024 was somewhat contrarian. Moving up to take Cedric Coward at No. 11 last year was aggressive. Both look like great picks right now, and their second-round history is second to none.
Memphis has a 37% chance of landing in the top four, and roughly 27% chance of being in the top three. If the latter comes to fruition, I think Caleb Wilson’s chances of being a top-three pick grow exponentially.
